Author: Jay Mooreland

Most investors love economic and market forecasts. With the markets so uncertain and volatile, our brain craves some sort of idea of what the future holds. But economies and markets are unpredictable – evidenced by the fact that no one can consistently predict them with accuracy.

For example, in October of 2022, Bloomberg gave a 100% chance of a recession within twelve months. Not only did a recession not occur, but markets went up significantly. Anyone heeding such a forecast made a very costly mistake. There are many more similar examples of financial forecasts getting it completely wrong.

Unlike market and economic forecasts, my forecast is dependable and robust because it is based on enduring investment truths and investor behavior. These factors are more reliable than market outcomes and more important to an investor’s well-being.

My 2025 Forecast

In full disclosure, the following forecast is nearly identical to previous forecasts:

• The economy/market will do something that surprises us (and the experts)
• The financial media will enrich themselves by emotionalizing headlines and short-term market moves to entice you to click and tune in. It’s nothing more than click bait
• Investors who tune into the news and evaluate their performance often will experience more stress and anxiety than those that don’t
• Investing in the stock market will be unpleasant at times. Historically, the stock market goes down roughly half the time on a daily basis
• Investors that move to cash, waiting for a “better time,” will suffer significant uncertainty and anxiety about when and how to get back in
• Your investment decisions and reactions to market events will ¬¬have a significant impact on your personal investment return
• You will be tempted to change your investment strategy based on market performance, expert forecasts, and/or your personal beliefs about the future

Conviction, patience, and discipline are virtues every investor should develop. They aren’t easy, yet they are essential for your success. As your advisor, one of my most important roles is helping you ignore the noise and focus on what really matters to your financial success.

I wish you a prosperous, fulfilling, and happy 2025. Thank you for allowing me to be your trusted partner along the journey.

– Scott

I am so grateful to live in a free nation. I am so grateful for the freedom and right to pursue happiness, as established in the Declaration of Independence. Thanks be to many unselfish individuals that sacrificed much, even their own lives, so we can enjoy these freedoms today.

These freedoms don’t guarantee desirable outcomes, but they permit us to have a say over how our lives go…if we choose wisely. I wanted to share some thoughts on how the principle of sacrifice and blessing of freedom can help investors obtain more desirable outcomes.

Worthy Investor Sacrifices

Being an investor in the stock market is not easy, at least not always. We face recessions, bear markets, negative news stories, and the constant presence of uncertainty.

Investing requires investors to sacrifice near-term comfort and certainty for a better potential future. It is not uncommon for investors to experience anxiety, fear, and temptations to make the wrong decision at the wrong time. The sacrifices investors make are not easy, but they are worth it!

Investor Freedoms

Investors are free to make whatever decisions they want, but sometimes those decisions end up being costly. I have contemplated what freedoms can best help us invest well and share with you three freedoms that help investors invest well.

1. Freedom to customize an investment strategy to your preferences and goals
2. Freedom to ignore the media…they use information to get clicks, not help you
3. Freedom to search for additional information, not relying on biased headlines

My primary role is to help my clients reach their goals. This requires wise decision-making across a myriad of market and economic environments.

It is not easy making the requisite sacrifices and using our freedoms to make the best decisions, but that is what I am here for. I can help alleviate the burden of sacrifice and ensure decision-making is in line with your personal plan of success.

– Scott

As summer comes upon us, many people take time off work, travel, and spend time with family and loved ones. The summer provides many opportunities for us to make memories – memories that can last a lifetime and provide years of joy.

But life is complex. We often need to juggle multiple priorities, many of which are good. Yet we have limited time. We choose to focus and spend time on some things at the expense of others…all of which may be good. There are things that are good, things that are better, and things that are best. To make this a great summer, we should identify and choose those things that are best, strategically omitting other things that may be good.

Strategic Omission

We often think achieving greater results such greater happiness, greater meaning, and greater connections requires that we do more of something. But the opposite is actually true. We can enhance our lives and experiences by omitting things that may distract us or “crowd out” things that are better or best.

This can be a difficult endeavor because much of what we do on a daily basis is habitual. We may want to remove an activity from our life but have a hard time because we do it automatically. This is where creating a “Don’t Do List” (instead of a To-Do List) could be helpful. Identify what you will stop doing, write it down, and follow it daily just like you would a to-do list.

What Should I Omit?

As you consider what may be best to omit from your life this summer, the first place to start is on your personal values. Which activities best support your values and the legacy you want to leave?  Which activities do you want to engage in that do not necessarily support your values? And which are negative activities? Make a list and prioritize. Then choose to omit at least one of them from your life this summer – making time for things that are better and best. 

Too many people live with regret – things they wish they would have done differently but cannot go back and change. The summer of 2024 will only happen one time. I encourage you to consider what activities you can stop doing so you can have the best summer possible.

– Scott

The brain has a lot of gray matter but hates gray areas. As a planning machine, the brain needs information that is certain so it can figure out the best course of action. And when we don’t get certain information, we get agitated. Perhaps you have said, “I don’t care if the news is good or bad, just tell me what it is. Not knowing is the worst.”

Probability Problem

Whenever there is uncertainty (almost always) we must rely on probabilities to help us make the best decision. But considering probabilities requires a lot of thought and analysis. It means we have to think statistically, which most of us prefer not to do. Instead, we simplify probabilities whenever possible.

We all want to know what is going to happen in the markets. In the face of uncertainty, we seek out some degree of certainty – even an illusion of certainty. We are attracted to forecasters and market experts who will tell us what is going to happen. And we confuse their popularity and confidence with their ability to predict the future.

Investing Takeaway

The truth is we can think of a lot of things that have occurred that cause investors and “experts” alike to scratch our heads. Surprises and uncertainty are just about the only certainty in the financial markets.

We can’t control the markets or the economy. We can’t rely on expert forecasts, no matter how confident they sound. Even those forecasts with low or high probabilities aren’t sure things – sometimes the unexpected happens.

But we can control how we respond…the choices we make. A Financial Plan provides guidance and structure. It needs to be coupled with a Response Plan – how we will respond to the uncertainties and surprises. That’s what I am here for. Let’s focus our time and energy on those things we can control – our personal financial and response plan.

– Scott

Nick Saban, recently retired football coach of the Alabama Crimson Tide said, “If you want to be good you don’t really have a lot of choices.” He was referring to the choice to either be disciplined (or not) to a specific process that would lead to success.

No one is born an athlete. We are all human with similar preferences: sleep/rest over working out, eating the donut rather than broccoli, and having fun instead of working.

Athletes are created through dedication to a routine or process that will help them become an athlete. They show up at the gym, they follow a nutrition plan, and they endure in their routines even when they don’t feel like it or want to. Persistent discipline to that routine is what makes them an athlete.

A Solid Investment Process

The “secret” to becoming a great investor is no different. It requires discipline to a process or routine. Not just any routine, but the right one. Watching the stock market is a routine, but it doesn’t develop a successful investor. So, what routines or process can investors take that will help them become great?

1. Ignore Economic and Market Predictions. Our desire for future certainty puts us at risk to fall for the illusion of certainty – which is the only certainty the experts offer.
2. Focus on Fundamentals, not Price Movement. Daily stock price movements seldom represent the true value of the company at any given time. Earnings and cash flow deserve your attention, not the price movement of the stock.
3. Have a Reaction Plan. A reaction plan is a process itself of what you will do when the inevitable surprising events occur. Will you respond immediately? Will you take your cues from the media? Will you talk it over with me? I suggest the latter.

The Process and You

Defining your investment process is important and practiced by many investors. But the maintaining discipline to that process is what separates the average investor from the most successful investors. Discipline is what makes athletes, athletes. And it is what can help you achieve your financial goals. I am here to help you along the way.

– Scott

Self-control is an important characteristic to develop that can help us in all aspects of our lives from biting our tongue, to passing on the sweet treat, to accomplishing our New Year’s resolutions. But it isn’t easy! In fact, it can be downright painful, especially when trying to control some urge.

It’s Not About Willpower

Many people say what they need is more willpower and discipline, but that isn’t it. And thank goodness because we have a limited amount willpower that depletes quickly.

James Clear, author of Atomic Habits, said, “The people with the best self-control are typically the ones who need to use it the least…the way to improve these qualities is not by wishing you were a more disciplined person, but by creating a more disciplined environment.”¹ (emphasis mine)

It’s About the Environment

When we engage in an activity that requires self-control, we should seek to create an environment that will lessen the need to use self-control. If we are seeking a healthier lifestyle it would be easier for us to accomplish if we spent more time (and money) in the produce section and less in the bakery section of the grocery store.

We cannot control all environments we find ourselves in, but we can adjust many of them to create an easier environment to behave the way we wish to behave. Becoming, improving, and accomplishing is often just a product of our small daily decisions.

Your Investment Environment

The investment environment is one that investors can control pretty easily. Most investors prefer peace to anxiety, stability to volatility. The markets, which are uncertain and volatile by nature, will not provide that. But choosing not to tune in, not to look at every move and sensational news headline, produces an environment much more conducive to feel peace and stability.

No matter what you are seeking to accomplish, changing your environment can be much easier than exercising willpower to act in the way you hope and wish to act. And when it comes to investing and financial matters, I am here to help you reach your goals, and help you feel confidence and peace along the financial journey.

– Scott

 

1. Clear, James. Atomic Habits. 2018