Author: Jay Mooreland

The upcoming Memorial Day holiday is a time to remember and reflect. It gives us a moment to step back, gain perspective, and appreciate what matters most.

That idea applies to investing more than it may seem.

Right now, there’s no shortage of concerns. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East, rising oil prices tied to tensions with Iran, lingering inflation, and constant debate about where markets go next. Add in the growing noise around AI and the future of jobs, and it’s easy to feel uncertain.

When information comes at us this fast, it can feel like action is required.

Remembering and Perspective

This is where remembering becomes valuable.

Markets have always faced uncertainty. Different headlines, same pattern. Periods of stress come and go, and markets have historically moved through them.

It also helps to remember our own behavior. Most investors don’t struggle when markets are calm. They struggle when uncertainty rises and emotions take over. That’s when decisions shift from disciplined to reactive.

We’ve seen it before. Investors hold on during early declines, then grow impatient. Eventually, many sell when it feels hardest to stay invested, often near market lows.

That’s not a lack of knowledge. It’s a lack of perspective.

So what’s worth remembering right now?

Markets have historically rewarded patience, not reaction. Short-term uncertainty is normal, even when it feels unique. And your plan was built for periods like this.

It can also help to think back five or ten years. The headlines then felt just as concerning. Yet markets moved forward.

That’s the power of remembering.

Memorial Day reminds us to pause and reflect. In investing, doing the same can help us stay grounded, make better decisions, and remain focused on the plan, not the moment.

Scott

©Behavioral Finance Network

Every day, there’s a new headline.

Headlines such as:

• Markets drop on inflation fears
• Stocks rise on rate cut hopes
• Geopolitical tensions increase uncertainty.

It’s constant. And it’s designed to get your attention.

The problem is what makes the front page compelling often makes it a poor guide for investment decisions.

What the Front Page Gets Wrong

The front page is about what just happened or what might happen next.

Your investment plan is built around what tends to happen over time.

Headlines highlight surprise and urgency. They can make normal market behavior feel unusual.

A pullback may feel like a signal and volatility feels like a warning and need for action.

Pullbacks and volatility are not exceptions. They are part of how markets work.

Why It Feels So Convincing

Headlines are immediate and specific. They feel important.

And when you see the same message repeated, it starts to feel like something you need to act

on. But reacting to headlines often leads to short-term decisions that don’t align with long-term goals.

A Better Way to Think About It

This doesn’t mean ignoring the news. It means not letting it drive decisions.

A better question is: “Does this change my long-term plan?”

Most of the time, it doesn’t. And that’s discipline.

The front page will change tomorrow. Your strategy shouldn’t.

Scott

©Behavioral Finance Network

Most investors think they struggle with risk. What they actually struggle with is uncertainty.

Risk can be measured, diversified, and planned for. Uncertainty is different. It’s not knowing what headline to believe or what comes next. The human brain may consist of a lot of gray matter, but it hates gray areas.

Uncertainty Pushes Us to Seek Certainty

When things feel uncertain, instincts take over. The brain looks for certainty, not accuracy. In that search, it can mistake the illusion for certainty for real certainty.

That’s why markets can feel especially uncomfortable during periods like this. Mixed signals. Conflicting headlines. Strong returns alongside unsettling news. No clear narrative.

The discomfort feels real, but it’s emotional, not analytical.

Discomfort Isn’t the Same as Risk

A common mistake is assuming that feeling uneasy means something is wrong. Emotional discomfort can create the urge to regain control by changing course.

But discomfort isn’t a reliable signal. It’s often just the price of staying invested in an unpredictable world. Well-diversified portfolios are expected to feel uncomfortable at times. That doesn’t mean they’re broken.

Ironically, risk often feels lowest when confidence is highest and the future appears predictable. When we feel most comfortable is often when we should be most alert, because that’s when risk can be easiest to overlook.

Plans Are Built for Periods Like This

A good investment plan isn’t designed to eliminate uncertainty. That’s impossible. It’s designed to function through it.

Plans don’t change based on headlines. They change when goals, time horizons, or life circumstances change. That distinction matters.

Feeling uneasy doesn’t mean you’re doing something wrong. It means you’re human. The goal isn’t constant confidence. It’s making good decisions even when confidence is in short supply.

That’s how long-term results are built. And that’s why you have me. Together, we can make sure your decisions support your plan rather than react to the concern of the day.

Scott

©Behavioral Finance Network

Change. We spend much of our time thinking about it, predicting it, and anticipating it.

Markets change. Headlines change. Technology changes. Policies change. Every year brings a new reason why “this time is different.”

Several years ago, Jeff Bezos turned the question of change on its head. He said it is more important to consider what will not change. In other words, what are the fundamental truths we can rely upon?

What Won’t Change

Human nature.

The market, economy, players, and environment may change, but how we behave as a group seldom does. Our preferences are fairly static. Our emotional wiring hasn’t changed much, even though the world moves faster.

We Are Hardwired to Be Bad Investors

That is a fundamental truth. As humans we are emotional, we respond hastily when threatened, we overreact to uncertainty, we prefer shiny things to the mundane, and we hate not knowing. Markets give us plenty of chances to prove it.

Long-term investing is meant to be boring, but our brain desires the exciting. Most news is seductive noise to the long-term investor, and a costly distraction.

Bezos said, “When you have something you know is true, even over the long term, you can afford to put a lot of energy into it.”

Using Your Energy Wisely

Most investors spend their time and energy speculating on market outcomes and public policy, things that are unpredictable and always changing.

It would be more productive to spend our time and energy on what doesn’t change, such as human nature. The goal is not to predict tomorrow, but to respond better to whatever occurs.

That’s where planning, collaboration, and trusted advice play their most important role.

– Scott

©The Behavioral Finance Network

Most investors love economic and market forecasts. With the markets so uncertain and volatile, our brain craves some sort of idea of what the future holds. But the markets are unpredictable – evidenced by the fact that no one can consistently predict them with accuracy. Economic and stock market forecasts are not reliable, no matter what your brain tells you.

Unlike market and economic forecasts, my forecast is reliable and robust because it is based on enduring investment truths and investor behavior. These factors are more dependable than market outcomes and more important to an investor’s well-being.

My Forecast For 2026

In full disclosure, the following forecast is nearly identical to my forecast from last year and years prior to that.

• The economy/market will do something that surprises us (and the experts). In hindsight we will wonder how we didn’t see it
• The financial media will emotionalize headlines, and short-term market moves to entice you to tune in – so they can achieve better ratings
• As is typical in a midterm election year, economic narratives will diverge sharply, one party emphasizing economic hardships, the other highlighting economic progress
• Investors who watch the news and stock market often will experience more stress than those that don’t
• Investors that move to cash, waiting for a “better time,” will suffer significant uncertainty and anxiety about when and how to get back in
• Your investment decisions and reactions to market events will ­­have a significant impact on your personal investment return
• You will be tempted to change your investment strategy based on market performance, expert forecasts, and/or your personal beliefs about the future

Conviction, patience, and discipline are virtues every investor should develop. They aren’t easy, yet they are essential for your success. One of my most important roles is helping you ignore the noise and focus on what really matters to your financial success.

I wish you a prosperous, fulfilling, and happy 2026. Thank you for allowing me to be your trusted partner along the journey.

– Scott

©The Behavioral Finance Network

Warren Buffett has officially stepped down from Berkshire Hathaway, and last month he wrote his final shareholder letter. While much of it reflected on his upbringing, he closed with a few “final thoughts” that offer powerful guidance for investors today.

1. “Don’t beat yourself up over past mistakes — learn at least a little from them and move on.”
   Every investor makes mistakes. What matters is how quickly we recognize them, learn from them, and get back on track. A big part of my job is helping you avoid common pitfalls and navigate challenges with a level head when they arise.

• “Decide what you would like your obituary to say and live the life to deserve it.”
  In the busyness of work, responsibilities, and financial decision-making, it’s easy to lose sight of what truly matters. This reminder helps us keep our priorities straight so we can make choices, financial and otherwise, that we’ll be proud of later.

• “You will never be perfect, but you can always be better.”
  The pursuit of perfection often creates unnecessary stress. It can even keep us from admitting mistakes; something that can be costly for investors. Real progress happens gradually, one small improvement at a time, both financially and personally.

As 2025 comes to a close, you may already be thinking about how you want to grow in 2026. These three Buffett principles offer a helpful framework for setting intentions and strengthening the habits that matter most. They can guide you in becoming a better investor, but also a better spouse, partner, parent, friend, and colleague. And the more we notice progress, however small, the more content and grounded we tend to feel.

Wishing you a meaningful holiday season and a successful year ahead.

– Scott

©The Behavioral Finance Network. Used with permission.