Author: Jay Mooreland

Most investors think they struggle with risk. What they actually struggle with is uncertainty.

Risk can be measured, diversified, and planned for. Uncertainty is different. It’s not knowing what headline to believe or what comes next. The human brain may consist of a lot of gray matter, but it hates gray areas.

Uncertainty Pushes Us to Seek Certainty

When things feel uncertain, instincts take over. The brain looks for certainty, not accuracy. In that search, it can mistake the illusion for certainty for real certainty.

That’s why markets can feel especially uncomfortable during periods like this. Mixed signals. Conflicting headlines. Strong returns alongside unsettling news. No clear narrative.

The discomfort feels real, but it’s emotional, not analytical.

Discomfort Isn’t the Same as Risk

A common mistake is assuming that feeling uneasy means something is wrong. Emotional discomfort can create the urge to regain control by changing course.

But discomfort isn’t a reliable signal. It’s often just the price of staying invested in an unpredictable world. Well-diversified portfolios are expected to feel uncomfortable at times. That doesn’t mean they’re broken.

Ironically, risk often feels lowest when confidence is highest and the future appears predictable. When we feel most comfortable is often when we should be most alert, because that’s when risk can be easiest to overlook.

Plans Are Built for Periods Like This

A good investment plan isn’t designed to eliminate uncertainty. That’s impossible. It’s designed to function through it.

Plans don’t change based on headlines. They change when goals, time horizons, or life circumstances change. That distinction matters.

Feeling uneasy doesn’t mean you’re doing something wrong. It means you’re human. The goal isn’t constant confidence. It’s making good decisions even when confidence is in short supply.

That’s how long-term results are built. And that’s why you have me. Together, we can make sure your decisions support your plan rather than react to the concern of the day.

Scott

©Behavioral Finance Network

Change. We spend much of our time thinking about it, predicting it, and anticipating it.

Markets change. Headlines change. Technology changes. Policies change. Every year brings a new reason why “this time is different.”

Several years ago, Jeff Bezos turned the question of change on its head. He said it is more important to consider what will not change. In other words, what are the fundamental truths we can rely upon?

What Won’t Change

Human nature.

The market, economy, players, and environment may change, but how we behave as a group seldom does. Our preferences are fairly static. Our emotional wiring hasn’t changed much, even though the world moves faster.

We Are Hardwired to Be Bad Investors

That is a fundamental truth. As humans we are emotional, we respond hastily when threatened, we overreact to uncertainty, we prefer shiny things to the mundane, and we hate not knowing. Markets give us plenty of chances to prove it.

Long-term investing is meant to be boring, but our brain desires the exciting. Most news is seductive noise to the long-term investor, and a costly distraction.

Bezos said, “When you have something you know is true, even over the long term, you can afford to put a lot of energy into it.”

Using Your Energy Wisely

Most investors spend their time and energy speculating on market outcomes and public policy, things that are unpredictable and always changing.

It would be more productive to spend our time and energy on what doesn’t change, such as human nature. The goal is not to predict tomorrow, but to respond better to whatever occurs.

That’s where planning, collaboration, and trusted advice play their most important role.

– Scott

©The Behavioral Finance Network

Most investors love economic and market forecasts. With the markets so uncertain and volatile, our brain craves some sort of idea of what the future holds. But the markets are unpredictable – evidenced by the fact that no one can consistently predict them with accuracy. Economic and stock market forecasts are not reliable, no matter what your brain tells you.

Unlike market and economic forecasts, my forecast is reliable and robust because it is based on enduring investment truths and investor behavior. These factors are more dependable than market outcomes and more important to an investor’s well-being.

My Forecast For 2026

In full disclosure, the following forecast is nearly identical to my forecast from last year and years prior to that.

• The economy/market will do something that surprises us (and the experts). In hindsight we will wonder how we didn’t see it
• The financial media will emotionalize headlines, and short-term market moves to entice you to tune in – so they can achieve better ratings
• As is typical in a midterm election year, economic narratives will diverge sharply, one party emphasizing economic hardships, the other highlighting economic progress
• Investors who watch the news and stock market often will experience more stress than those that don’t
• Investors that move to cash, waiting for a “better time,” will suffer significant uncertainty and anxiety about when and how to get back in
• Your investment decisions and reactions to market events will ­­have a significant impact on your personal investment return
• You will be tempted to change your investment strategy based on market performance, expert forecasts, and/or your personal beliefs about the future

Conviction, patience, and discipline are virtues every investor should develop. They aren’t easy, yet they are essential for your success. One of my most important roles is helping you ignore the noise and focus on what really matters to your financial success.

I wish you a prosperous, fulfilling, and happy 2026. Thank you for allowing me to be your trusted partner along the journey.

– Scott

©The Behavioral Finance Network

Warren Buffett has officially stepped down from Berkshire Hathaway, and last month he wrote his final shareholder letter. While much of it reflected on his upbringing, he closed with a few “final thoughts” that offer powerful guidance for investors today.

1. “Don’t beat yourself up over past mistakes — learn at least a little from them and move on.”
   Every investor makes mistakes. What matters is how quickly we recognize them, learn from them, and get back on track. A big part of my job is helping you avoid common pitfalls and navigate challenges with a level head when they arise.

• “Decide what you would like your obituary to say and live the life to deserve it.”
  In the busyness of work, responsibilities, and financial decision-making, it’s easy to lose sight of what truly matters. This reminder helps us keep our priorities straight so we can make choices, financial and otherwise, that we’ll be proud of later.

• “You will never be perfect, but you can always be better.”
  The pursuit of perfection often creates unnecessary stress. It can even keep us from admitting mistakes; something that can be costly for investors. Real progress happens gradually, one small improvement at a time, both financially and personally.

As 2025 comes to a close, you may already be thinking about how you want to grow in 2026. These three Buffett principles offer a helpful framework for setting intentions and strengthening the habits that matter most. They can guide you in becoming a better investor, but also a better spouse, partner, parent, friend, and colleague. And the more we notice progress, however small, the more content and grounded we tend to feel.

Wishing you a meaningful holiday season and a successful year ahead.

– Scott

©The Behavioral Finance Network. Used with permission.

Investing is inherently uncertain. Global economies and financial markets are shaped by countless variables—many of them unpredictable and beyond our control. Meanwhile, the media floods us with attention-grabbing headlines, and impulsive investors can sway markets dramatically in short bursts. In such an environment, how should investors respond? How can anyone succeed amid so much noise and uncertainty?

Financial columnist Sam Ro captured the essence of this challenge by breaking the future into three possible scenarios: (1) markets improve and rise in value; (2) markets decline, but eventually recover and move higher; or (3) markets decline and never recover. He then noted an important fact: the third scenario has never occurred. And while anything is possible, betting on an outcome that’s never happened may not be a sound investment strategy.[1]

Planning for Most Likely Outcomes

If Scenario 1 plays out and markets continue climbing from here, the best course of action is clear: remain invested. That one’s easy.

But what if we get Scenario 2? This is when many investors get spooked, selling in an attempt to protect themselves from further losses, waiting for “better times” before getting back in. But is that wise? Only if you can accurately time the market, which no one can. If markets decline but are expected to recover and move higher (we just don’t know when), then isn’t the most responsible approach to stay the course?

The Responsible Choice

History shows that the stock market alternates between Scenario 1 and Scenario 2. Sometimes it rises steadily; other times it declines before eventually recovering. But regardless of which scenario unfolds next, the most effective investment decision has always been the same: stay the course.

We don’t need to predict the next recession, interest rate move, policy shift, or trade dispute. What we can control is our discipline. And that discipline, sticking to a well-designed strategy through all market conditions, can be surprisingly comforting. If the most likely long-term outcome is that markets will ultimately move higher, then patience, discipline, and ignoring the short-term noise become our most valuable tools.

– Scott

[1] Sam Ro, TKER Substack, May 18, 2025

There’s no shortage of things to worry about today—tariffs, economic uncertainty, global unrest—and all of it can impact our financial future. The media often magnifies these concerns, focusing on fear because it grabs attention. Over time, this constant exposure can affect our mood, cloud our thinking, lead to unproductive decisions, and—most importantly—erode our personal happiness.

Choosing Happiness

While life’s circumstances influence our moods, lasting happiness has more to do with the focus of our lives than the circumstances of our lives. We may not control everything happening around us, but we have full control over what we choose to dwell on.

Cynicism and pessimism are easy—they’re almost automatic. But choosing optimism and happiness? That takes effort—and yields far greater rewards. Optimism doesn’t deny reality; it reframes it. When we intentionally focus on what’s going right, we boost both our mindset and our mood. After all, what good is reaching your financial goals if you don’t enjoy the journey?

Just Laugh

One of the simplest ways to lift your mood is to laugh more. Young children are often the greatest examples of happiness. They are quick to forgive, and they laugh—a lot. Studies show the average four-year-old laughs 300 times a day. The average forty-year-old? Just four.[1]

That’s unfortunate, because laughter triggers the release of dopamine, oxytocin, and endorphins—chemicals that elevate mood, reduce stress, and strengthen human connection. Good-natured humor is a powerful tool for well-being.

You don’t need to be funny to benefit. Surround yourself with people who make you smile. Even small acts—like offering a compliment or sharing a laugh—can create positive, unifying feelings.

In a world filled with worry, choosing to laugh, smile, and engage with optimism is a powerful act. We can’t control markets or headlines, but we can control our mindset. Shifting from worry to joy brings clarity, emotional balance, and peace of mind. And that’s not just good for your well-being—it’s good for your financial future.

– Scott

I am so grateful to live in a free nation. I am so grateful for the freedom and right to pursue happiness, as established in the Declaration of Independence. Thanks be to many unselfish individuals that sacrificed much, even their own lives, so we can enjoy these freedoms today.

These freedoms don’t guarantee desirable outcomes, but they permit us to have a say over how our lives go…if we choose wisely. I wanted to share some thoughts on how the principle of sacrifice and blessing of freedom can help investors obtain more desirable outcomes.

Worthy Investor Sacrifices

Being an investor in the stock market is not easy, at least not always. We face recessions, bear markets, negative news stories, and the constant presence of uncertainty.

Investing requires investors to sacrifice near-term comfort and certainty for a better potential future. It is not uncommon for investors to experience anxiety, fear, and temptations to make the wrong decision at the wrong time. The sacrifices investors make are not easy, but they are worth it!

Investor Freedoms

Investors are free to make whatever decisions they want, but sometimes those decisions end up being costly. I have contemplated what freedoms can best help us invest well and share with you three freedoms that help investors invest well.

1. Freedom to customize an investment strategy to your preferences and goals
2. Freedom to ignore the media…they use information to get clicks, not help you
3. Freedom to search for additional information, not relying on biased headlines

My primary role is to help my clients reach their goals. This requires wise decision-making across a myriad of market and economic environments.

It is not easy making the requisite sacrifices and using our freedoms to make the best decisions, but that is what I am here for. I can help alleviate the burden of sacrifice and ensure decision-making is in line with your personal plan of success.

– Scott

As summer comes upon us, many people take time off work, travel, and spend time with family and loved ones. The summer provides many opportunities for us to make memories – memories that can last a lifetime and provide years of joy.

But life is complex. We often need to juggle multiple priorities, many of which are good. Yet we have limited time. We choose to focus and spend time on some things at the expense of others…all of which may be good. There are things that are good, things that are better, and things that are best. To make this a great summer, we should identify and choose those things that are best, strategically omitting other things that may be good.

Strategic Omission

We often think achieving greater results such greater happiness, greater meaning, and greater connections requires that we do more of something. But the opposite is actually true. We can enhance our lives and experiences by omitting things that may distract us or “crowd out” things that are better or best.

This can be a difficult endeavor because much of what we do on a daily basis is habitual. We may want to remove an activity from our life but have a hard time because we do it automatically. This is where creating a “Don’t Do List” (instead of a To-Do List) could be helpful. Identify what you will stop doing, write it down, and follow it daily just like you would a to-do list.

What Should I Omit?

As you consider what may be best to omit from your life this summer, the first place to start is on your personal values. Which activities best support your values and the legacy you want to leave?  Which activities do you want to engage in that do not necessarily support your values? And which are negative activities? Make a list and prioritize. Then choose to omit at least one of them from your life this summer – making time for things that are better and best. 

Too many people live with regret – things they wish they would have done differently but cannot go back and change. The summer of 2024 will only happen one time. I encourage you to consider what activities you can stop doing so you can have the best summer possible.

– Scott

The brain has a lot of gray matter but hates gray areas. As a planning machine, the brain needs information that is certain so it can figure out the best course of action. And when we don’t get certain information, we get agitated. Perhaps you have said, “I don’t care if the news is good or bad, just tell me what it is. Not knowing is the worst.”

Probability Problem

Whenever there is uncertainty (almost always) we must rely on probabilities to help us make the best decision. But considering probabilities requires a lot of thought and analysis. It means we have to think statistically, which most of us prefer not to do. Instead, we simplify probabilities whenever possible.

We all want to know what is going to happen in the markets. In the face of uncertainty, we seek out some degree of certainty – even an illusion of certainty. We are attracted to forecasters and market experts who will tell us what is going to happen. And we confuse their popularity and confidence with their ability to predict the future.

Investing Takeaway

The truth is we can think of a lot of things that have occurred that cause investors and “experts” alike to scratch our heads. Surprises and uncertainty are just about the only certainty in the financial markets.

We can’t control the markets or the economy. We can’t rely on expert forecasts, no matter how confident they sound. Even those forecasts with low or high probabilities aren’t sure things – sometimes the unexpected happens.

But we can control how we respond…the choices we make. A Financial Plan provides guidance and structure. It needs to be coupled with a Response Plan – how we will respond to the uncertainties and surprises. That’s what I am here for. Let’s focus our time and energy on those things we can control – our personal financial and response plan.

– Scott

Nick Saban, recently retired football coach of the Alabama Crimson Tide said, “If you want to be good you don’t really have a lot of choices.” He was referring to the choice to either be disciplined (or not) to a specific process that would lead to success.

No one is born an athlete. We are all human with similar preferences: sleep/rest over working out, eating the donut rather than broccoli, and having fun instead of working.

Athletes are created through dedication to a routine or process that will help them become an athlete. They show up at the gym, they follow a nutrition plan, and they endure in their routines even when they don’t feel like it or want to. Persistent discipline to that routine is what makes them an athlete.

A Solid Investment Process

The “secret” to becoming a great investor is no different. It requires discipline to a process or routine. Not just any routine, but the right one. Watching the stock market is a routine, but it doesn’t develop a successful investor. So, what routines or process can investors take that will help them become great?

1. Ignore Economic and Market Predictions. Our desire for future certainty puts us at risk to fall for the illusion of certainty – which is the only certainty the experts offer.
2. Focus on Fundamentals, not Price Movement. Daily stock price movements seldom represent the true value of the company at any given time. Earnings and cash flow deserve your attention, not the price movement of the stock.
3. Have a Reaction Plan. A reaction plan is a process itself of what you will do when the inevitable surprising events occur. Will you respond immediately? Will you take your cues from the media? Will you talk it over with me? I suggest the latter.

The Process and You

Defining your investment process is important and practiced by many investors. But the maintaining discipline to that process is what separates the average investor from the most successful investors. Discipline is what makes athletes, athletes. And it is what can help you achieve your financial goals. I am here to help you along the way.

– Scott