Author: Scott Schatzle

Selling a security is something that investors ponder from time to time. Whether that security is an individual stock, a mutual fund, or an index fund, investors are left with the question of what to do with the proceeds.

No matter the reason for selling, it is important we have a well-thought plan for what we will do with the proceeds…before we pull the trigger.

Remaining in Cash

The default for selling securities is to remain in cash. Whether the markets are high or low, we may justify sitting in cash until the “uncertainty and tough times pass.” This logic relies on a significant (and incorrect) assumption – that there will be an all-clear signal that it is a good time to invest.

Sitting in cash may seem to be a comfortable and safe move, but it is fraught with uncertainties and long-term danger. When do we get back in? What if the market keeps moving higher? At what point do we realize that the train has left the station and we aren’t on board?

Investing in Another Security

We may sell a security with plans to invest in a different one. Sometimes we are influenced to buy a security that has been performing better than what we own. The question we must ask ourselves is: “What evidence do I have that the new security will perform better than the existing one?”

This is an important question to reflect and discuss with me. A lot of money has been lost because investors sold and bought at the wrong time. This happens with both novice and professional investors, including institutional managers.

In a study spanning 24 years, researchers analyzed the trading results of institutional money managers. They found that the stocks they sold subsequently outperformed the stocks they bought at a cost of over $170 billion. The abstract summarized, “Plan sponsors could have saved hundreds of billions of dollars in assets had they simply stayed the course.”¹

Thoughtful Selling

Of course, there are occasions when selling a security makes sense. But that should only be after intentional thought and creating a “what’s next” plan. It is so easy to sell, and our emotions can sometimes get the best of us. But that is why I am here. I am here to help you make thoughtful decisions that are in line with your plan.

– Scott

1. Scott Stewart, John Neumann, Christopher Knittel & Jeffrey Heisler, “Absence of Value: An Analysis of Investment Allocation Decisions by Institutional Plan Sponsors”, Financial Analysts Journal 65, no. 6 (2009)

Every December we get inundated with forecasts for the following year. These forecasts range from expected GDP and interest rates to stock market performance.

We are naturally attracted to forecasts because they purport to tell us what is going to happen, and they often are supported by persuasive reasoning and statistical analysis. After listening to a confident and persuasive forecast, especially if it is one we hope will come to pass, we may be inclined to make changes to our investment strategies in line with that forecast. But herein lies the mental deception. While forecasts appear to reduce future uncertainty, that is only an illusion because the markets are simply unpredictable.

Forecasting Challenges

Over the past 20 years, when polling economists and market strategists as a group to come up with a consensus forecast, not once did they forecast the stock market would be down the following year. Yet, we experienced six negative years. But that is not all. Experts predicted several recessions that never occurred and have been predicting a bubble for the last several years.

When it comes to forecasting the market and economy, it’s not so much about someone’s experience or knowledge. It’s about the predictability of the event. The market is impossible to predict because the future, by definition, is uncertain. Unexpected events (life happens), our responses to world events, and randomness make accurately forecasting the markets an impossible task. The proof is in the fact that no one can do it – consistently.

Using Forecasts Responsibly

Not all forecasts need be ignored. Some are better than others. Forecasts that offer a large range of potential outcomes can be helpful in setting our expectations for the future. Creating a vision of what is possible in the future is much more beneficial for our planning and decision-making than a specific forecast. Remember, the more specific the forecast, the more likely it will be wrong.

I read and review many forecasts that are published. I look forward to sharing with you in the coming weeks my thoughts along with productive expectations and perspectives to help us have a great 2022, no matter what the markets may do.

– Scott